File photo. Mohammad Ali Marizad—AFP
It is considered routine that Israel and Iran exchange threats of conflict while avoiding any kind of discord with the Arab states in the Gulf. Yet, this is what is happening now because of the Abraham Accords of normalization between Israel and some Arab states, which are bringing peace to the old Middle East and causing American President Joe Biden to visit the region as if all the Gulf States and Israel were America’s allies. And that implies that Iran is isolated, which leads to the fear of conflict between Iran and the states across the Gulf.
Unfortunately the signs are already ominous. Following Israel’s warning of “preemptive” attacks against Iran, President Ebrahim Raisi has threatened Israel with “preemptive attacks” of its own and said: “Israel should see the distance between decision and action, and if they decide to act against Iran, they may not have a deadline to act.” Is this caused by the new developments in the region? Are American rivals Russia and China entering the scene? This may have been caused by America indirectly raising impediments by pressuring its regional partners to “limit their engagements with Beijing and Moscow” because it is worried about rivals expanding their presence in the Middle East. The Arabs of course realize that Russia and China are not a good substitute for America but are worried about the Iranian threat to a region already bothered by the collapse of Arab states like Lebanon and Syria with America doing nothing to prevent that.
The U.S. on the other hand is thinking of “thinning out” in the Gulf and expanding in the direction of the Pacific Ocean. How is Washington to manage in the Gulf when it is being driven by its rivalry with China to the east? Then there is the situation brought about by the global response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that has caused some rethinking among the friendly-to-the-U.S. states and aroused skepticism regarding Washington’s status as the dominant power in the region. The new multipolar reality, characterized by the expanded influence of China and Russia, has caused the major GCC states to move towards “neutrality,” which might mean sharing security with China. There is no doubt however that the Gulf States depend on the U.S.; will not stage an open rebellion; and will continue to allow increased cooperation with Israel.
What seems increasingly certain is that the importance of Israel will increase for the Arabs as they face a hostile Iran across the Gulf. Unfortunately, Iran, while isolated internationally, has emerged in states across the Gulf—like Lebanon and Syria—as a palpable thereat to Arab populations. Moreover, its closed system has caused Iranian citizens to protest, challenging the state’s ability to crush opposition. Ironically, Tehran likes to see the world across the Gulf as an oppressed society. During a visit to the Gulf by then-American president Barack Obama, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had declared that Tehran would help “the oppressed people in the region”; but today the Iranian state is confronting its own citizens complaining of oppression.