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In September 2021, Turkey, Pakistan and Azerbaijan held a ‘Three Brothers’ joint military exercise over two weeks, focusing on the capability to counter regional terror threats in “a hybrid scenario” and fostering “combined force interoperability, joint force integration and enhancement of capabilities in amphibious operations.” Pakistan’s western neighbor Iran, not getting along with ex-Soviet Azerbaijan, did not like it. Then-prime minister Imran Khan did not give much thought to the diplomatic faux pas, but Turkish President Erdogan later paid an “apologetic” visit to Tehran to “clear up any misunderstandings,” and “extended their gas supply contract for another 25 years, setting an ambitious trade target of $30 billion.” Pakistan’s inability to register the problem gives us a measure of the prevailing Pak-Iran relations.
A report published by the Associated Press on Oct. 1, 2021 cited a “warning” from Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s representative in Ardebil province, which borders Azerbaijan, “not to play with the lion’s tail.” A day later, an Azerbaijani from Baku said that Iran’s own Azeri minority could cause trouble in the event of any conflict; Tehran’s direct and indirect support of ethnic separatism in Azerbaijan could damage its own territorial integrity, as it is home to 30 million Azerbaijani Turks and many other ethnicities. Last month—a year after the “warning”—tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan are mounting over the latter’s plans for a land connection to Turkey through Armenian territory, also threatening Turkish-Iranian ties. Iran’s decision to conduct military exercises on its border with Azerbaijan has also not helped. Within Tehran, there is apprehension that Azerbaijan, emboldened by its victory over Armenia in a 2020 territorial war, is seeking to redraw borders by taking control of more territory. This, Iran worries, could cut its border connection with Armenia. For Turkey, however, it would mean a direct land link with Azerbaijan and a route to Central Asia, bypassing Iran.
It is unfortunate that the “three brothers” states of Pakistan, Azerbaijan and Turkey could not look carefully at what they were doing a year ago. It is assumed that Pakistan would not even think of offending western neighbor Iran, but this is what happened. Relations between Baku and Islamabad were established when the Republic of Azerbaijan became independent following the collapse of the USSR, on June 9, 1992, with Pakistan being the second country to recognize Azerbaijan, on Dec. 12, 1991, after Turkey. Trade and cooperation have steadily grown between the two nations, with several summits held on how to further improve bilateral trade. The two countries also “enjoy strategic partnership relations,” according to officials of both countries. But today there is a need to revisit the events of last year. Turkey has already made overtures to clear up any bad blood with Iran; Pakistan, too, must take care to clear up any misunderstanding that might have been caused by the exercise.