File photo of PTI chief Imran Khan
Since the May 9 riots that saw attacks on various military and civil installations, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan has repeatedly alleged that the violence is being used as “pretext” to sideline his party from politics and dent its popularity among the masses. It remains unclear what, if any, impact the unrest has had on the public’s perception of the PTI, but it is undeniable fact that Khan was the most popular political leader of Pakistan prior to it.
According to a Gallup poll conducted in February, Khan secured positive approval ratings from 61 percent of Pakistanis against 36 percent each for Pakistan Peoples Party Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) leader Nawaz Sharif. Former president Asif Ali Zardari of the PPP secured the most negative rating at 67 percent, though Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was not far behind with 65 percent of respondents rating him negatively. PMLN Senior Vice-President Maryam Nawaz, likewise, only secured a 34 percent positive rating.
These results make it obvious that prior to May 9, Khan’s PTI was set to win the next general elections. In this scenario, it is not too hard to believe the former prime minister when he says the primary aim of the current crackdown against his party is to prevent it—or specifically him—from participating in polls. And with elections due in October, just four months from now, it is increasingly unlikely that the ruling coalition would be able to regain popular support amidst an ongoing economic crunch and record-high inflation for the impoverished masses.
Khan is now claiming elections will not even happen in October—though there is no real evidence to back this assertion—even as lawmakers maintain the National Assembly will be dissolved upon the completion of its constitutional term in August. If the PTI is effectively sidelined, as feared by Khan, one of the parties comprising the ruling coalition may well emerge victorious. Such an election, however, would not prove a “win” for Pakistan’s struggling democracy, which has yet to recover from the widely-acknowledged “engineering” that was witnessed during the 2018 polls.