Buildings in Gaza destroyed by Israeli shelling
Following a surprise assault by Hamas over the weekend, the Israeli army retaliated against citizens of the Gaza Strip, indiscriminately targeting apartment complexes, hospitals and U.N. buildings. Thus far, over 1,500 people, including 687 Palestinians and 900 Israelis. As the Israeli commenced, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Palestinians in Gaza to “leave now,” though it remains unclear where they could go, as Israel controls almost all their border crossings. Much of the Western world has supported Israel’s airstrikes, with the U.S. moving a battleship into the Gulf to prevent any “interference.” By contrast, Muslim-majority states have voiced support for Palestine, but have stopped short of taking any steps to prevent Israel from killing civilians in the Gaza Strip.
Some Western observers have seen Iran’s hand in Hamas’ assault, citing a statement by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei from last week in which he said regional “countries that make the gamble of normalization with Israel will lose.” A senior Hamas official has denied this, while adding that “allies” like Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah would “join the battle” if Gaza was targeted for “annihilation.” This bolsters the belief among some Middle East experts that the only country to benefit from the current conflict would be Iran, which is already a key plank of the U.S.-China “cold war.” Indirectly, this also pulls Pakistan—already principally on Palestine’s side—into the conflict, especially as India expresses support for Israel as part of its growing alignment with the U.S.
Praising Hamas’ assault, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander-in-Chief Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami has claimed it has left “humiliated and weak,” adding the country can “no longer be as reckless as before.” This aggressive tone might indirectly be backed by China’s increased presence in the Gulf, as it seeks to supplant Washington’s traditional presence in the region. The present conflict, however, puts to bed thoughts of the U.S. ceding space to China, as President Joe Biden’s declaration of support for Israel ensures Washington will not be reducing its military presence any time soon. This could well be the start of another “deep” change in the strategic politics of the region.