File photo. Ilmars Znotins—AFP
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau set off a diplomatic crisis with India earlier this week by alleging in the House of Commons a “potential link” between Indian intelligence agents and the killing of a Sikh leader in Vancouver in June. Shortly after Trudeau’s speech, Ottawa expelled a senior Indian diplomat, with Delhi responding in a tit-for-tat move by expelling a senior Canadian diplomat. In his speech, Trudeau emphasized that if a foreign state were involved in the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen, it was an intolerable violation of Canada’s sovereignty. While the Canadian premier has yet to provide any evidence to back his claims, senior officials have told media it would be made public “in due course.”
In India, the allegation has proven a unifying force, with the main opposition Congress Party issuing a statement emphasizing that “the country’s interests and concerns must be kept paramount at all times.” It also echoed a statement issued by Narendra Modi’s government describing pro-Khalistan forces as “terrorists,” supporting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s narrative ahead of elections due next year. Both the Congress and the BJP have pushed back against Sikh separatism since the 1980s. In 1984, Indian forces stormed the Golden Temple in Amritsar to flush out Sikh separatists, killing around 400 according to official figures, though Sikh groups estimate the toll to be higher. In response, then-prime minister Indira Gandhi’s Sikh bodyguards assassinated her, triggering anti-Sikh riots that left thousands dead. The incident led to a mass exodus of Sikhs from India, with many ending up in Canada, where the community now numbers around 770,000, or 2 percent of the country’s population.
Some in the West have seen Trudeau’s allegation as a means to secure support of the Sikh community amidst rising public disapproval of his leadership. However, it has clearly isolated India in the West, with the U.S., U.K., and Australia—all key Indian allies—urging Delhi to cooperate with the Canadian investigation. Pakistan, meanwhile, sees Trudeau’s disclosure as validation for its repeated allegations of India violating its sovereignty, including by utilizing naval officer Kulbhushan Yadav as a spy in Balochistan to foment the Baloch separatist movement. However, Pakistan’s allegations have faced little reaction owing to the neighboring nations’ historic rivalry. Unfortunately for India, the strike in Canada—if proven to be instigated by Delhi—is unlikely to produce the same level of apathy and could spell serious trouble for its bid to emerge as the next global superpower.