Screengrab of PMLN leader Nawaz Sharif’s public address on Dec. 14, 2023
Since his return to Pakistan on Oct. 21, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif has resumed politicking and questioning why he was ousted from power when the country was on an upswing. In 2017, he was disqualified from holding public office “for life” in the Panama Papers case under Article 62(1)(f) of the Constitution. While now acquitted in all corruption references against him, the lifetime disqualification remains, raising questions on whether he can even return to power. The Shehbaz Sharif-led government facilitated his re-entry by amending the Elections Act, limiting disqualification of any politician to five years. The Supreme Court, meanwhile, is set to resolve the discrepancy between its own orders and the amended law in January. If the court rules in favor of the law, Sharif will be able to contest elections unhindered, but will he be able to win?
After nearly four years in self-exile, Sharif no longer retains his past popularity, with his party’s Punjab “stronghold” threatened by the rise of Imran Khan’s PTI. The PPP, too, hopes to accomplish a revival, though remains a distant third behind both the PTI and PMLN. Never an attractive speaker, Sharif’s biggest issue is attracting younger voters, who prefer the form of rhetoric popularized by Khan and increasingly utilized by the youthful PPP chief, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari.
In the public’s eye, Sharif is equated with economic prosperity, but prevailing conditions are much tougher than the past, and his old solutions may no longer apply. The PMLN often refers to the country’s 5.8 percent growth rate and 4 percent inflation when Sharif was ousted in 2017; an attractive prospect for a populace currently experiencing 31 percent inflation and a negative growth rate. But the PTI retains significant popularity, especially in urban centers, with worries mounting that Khan’s sidelining through multiple cases will impact the voter turnout and raise questions over the legitimacy of any new government that is formed after general elections.
Another key concern is Sharif’s history of conflict with Pakistan’s military, echoes of which persist in his veiled demands for accountability. For the most part, he has exercised restraint since his return. But if he returns to form, can the country afford another bout of destabilization arising from yet another ouster? These are just some of the issues facing Sharif as he gears up for the next polls; and questions that will no doubt ring large in the public’s minds when they go to polls in less than two months on Feb. 8, 2024.