File photo of PTI leader Imran Khan
Currently incarcerated and facing multiple cases, former prime minister Imran Khan continues to wield significant influence, often monopolizing airwaves and newspapers as the country gears up for elections on Feb. 8, 2024. Unfortunately, it is difficult to gauge the extent of his popularity—and that of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)—in the absence of a reliable national survey, with the most recent one from June last year, prior to his conviction and ramping up of cases against him. Regardless, based on informal public pulse polling, it is safe to assume he retains significant support, with a strong potential of putting up a tough fight for all rivals in free and fair elections. This, unsurprisingly after the events of the past two years—especially the May 9, 2023 riots—is not good news for the Army.
Incumbent PTI Chairman Gohar Ali Khan, in recent days, has taken great pains to stress his party has no animosity toward the Army and fully supports it. These words ring hollow, however, as the PTI’s supporters on and off social media assert their primary foe remains the establishment, from whose influence, they claim, Khan will secure them “real independence.” The sentiment is most visible in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, ruled by the PTI for nine years, with lesser but still significant support in the rest of the country. Boosting Khan’s popularity is recency bias, with the disastrous governance of the 16-month Pakistan Democratic Movement-led government looming large in the public’s mind.
It is no secret that there is no such thing as completely “free and fair” elections in Pakistan. The degrees to which polls are “managed” varies, but since the 1970s there has been no indication of elections that fully, and solely, respect the people’s mandate. In the 2018 general elections, the PTI was the beneficiary of this manipulation, enjoying the support of both the Army and the judiciary. Today, the tables have turned, and it is facing the full wrath of the state.
Raising the stakes is the perilous situation Pakistan faces in the coming years, with an economy requiring punishing reforms, and justified complaints of various ethnic groups coming to a boil. Amidst this, the country most needs a strong leader at the helm to herald stability, secure global support, and reduce polarization through collaboration. The establishment—and global observers—appear unconvinced Khan can be this man. In a recent op-ed, Imran Khan’s Comeback Would be Pakistan’s Setback, the Wall Street Journal offered a blunt assessment, warning the PTI founder’s return would damage Pakistan’s ties with the U.S., hurt its exports, and endanger future loans from the IMF. “Should Mr. Khan, a national hero in Pakistan, beat the odds and prevail, it won’t signal revival. Instead, it will likely hasten the precipitous decline of the nuclear-armed country of 240 million people,” it claimed.