File photo of Gulzar Khan, who has fathered 36 children with his three wives. Abdul Majeed—AFP
Pakistan on July 11 joined the world in marking World Population Day, seeking to raise awareness of global population issues. The issue has become especially pressing for Islamabad, with experts noting that Pakistan’s population grew from 31 million at Partition in 1947 to 140 million in 1995. Today, the country is estimated to have over 225 million residents, with an annual growth rate of 1.9 percent; the U.N. has predicted the national population could hit 380 million by 2050 if this rate is not curtailed. As an ostensibly agrarian country, Pakistan relies heavily on agriculture to support its numbers, but there is a limit to the amount of land available to achieve this, especially when the country continues to advocate unproductive “housing societies” rather than adopting cutting-edge farming technologies. If left unchecked, the population growth rate risks triggering famine and water scarcity.
Another issue is that of Pakistan’s demographics, with 74.22 percent of the population estimated to be under-35, of which approximately 30 percent are unemployed, placing an undue burden on older populations to support the youth. Many of the youth lack the educational qualifications to be inducted into the labor force, endangering the so-called “dividend” of a large, youthful population that is hailed by political leaders as Pakistan’s greatest asset.
The growing population requires expenditures for which Pakistan, with GDP growth of just 0.29% in the last fiscal year, lacks the resources to fund. The country’s persistent conflicts on its borders necessitate ever-higher defense and security funding, cutting into education and development. According to one doomsday scenario, the country could see widespread natural resource scarcities, with teeming cities overflowing with the homeless and hungry. This, as observed elsewhere, is the perfect breeding ground of extremism, as droves of impoverished, unemployed youth find little else to occupy them. Pakistan must raise awareness about family planning, especially among the impoverished, who lack the education to understand the benefits that can be availed from having fewer children with access to more resources. Failing to achieve this would make the country’s youth bulge a liability, rather than an asset.