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The cold wintery months, coupled with scheduled provision of domestic gas has reignited the discussion on Pakistan’s dwindling gas reserves, with no new discoveries expected. Since the early 1990s, Pakistan has been aware its gas-fields would run out around 2008 or 2010, a harrowing development considering the country’s reliance on the natural resource for industry, agriculture and food production. To make matters worse, Gen. Pervez Musharraf—rather than curbing consumption—added to the decline by utilizing gas for vehicular fuel, followed by captive power, especially for the textile industry. As predicted, the decline started around 2010, with Pakistan importing gas for the first time in 2015, and today utilizes imports to fulfill nearly a quarter of the gas consumed in the country.
According to official estimates, households comprise around 50 percent of total gas consumption, followed by fertilizer plants at 12 percent. The majority in both these categories receive subsidized gas, incentivizing inefficient use, resulting in the remainder actually paying more than the actual cost. Adding to the woes is the cost of gas supply to households being much higher than the cost incurred for industry or the power sector.
Latest forecasts suggest Pakistan’s indigenous oil reserves would be exhausted by 2025—if demand is capped at present-day levels. Several governments have offered solutions, but failed to take steps to implement them, painting a grim picture of how bad the crisis would get in future. One such suggestion is to use animal manure and agriculture waste to produce biogas and substitute it for natural gas, at least for domestic heating and cooking purposes, which would also help ease the country’s import bill. Hydrogen is also being touted to replace natural gas in the fertilizer industry, while solar and wind power is heralded to replace gas power plants. Unfortunately, the time to act is running out. Action is required immediately, or Pakistan risks a day not too far in the future when people would be forced to choose between utilizing exorbitantly priced gas or returning to wood-burning, adding to the country’s already-troublesome environmental concerns.