File photo of PTI Chairman Imran Khan
Early on Thursday, Chief Minister Parvez Elahi won a vote of confidence in the Punjab Assembly, clearing the way for the long-threatened dissolution of the house—against his wishes. Elahi has repeatedly made it clear that he wished to continue ruling in Punjab, but he had no choice but to accede to the desires of ally Imran Khan—the chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)—after he threatened to quit the Punjab Assembly, which would leave the Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid) leader with just 10 seats. The PTI’s plan is to dissolve the Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa assemblies and use this to pressure to somehow force general elections, which he hopes to sweep.
Elahi and his son Moonis have already declared a desire to continue their partnership with Khan in any general elections, but his dream to once again rule on behalf of Khan might not come to fruition. The opposition alliance, including the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and the Pakistan Peoples Party, might feign confidence over the what is to come but it appears likely that polls under a “neutral” establishment could see Imran Khan return to power—with or without the two-thirds majority he aspires to.
The PMLN’s resounding failure in Elahi’s vote of confidence despite weeks spent claiming “contacts” with unhappy lawmakers backs this view, sending a message of the province having succumbed to the magic of Imran Khan’s charisma. What comes next? The PTI’s rule of Punjab has been a fiasco on several fronts, with multiple allegations of massive corruption and disenchantment within his own party over his choice to appoint Usman Buzdar as the chief minister. If Khan wins elections, as he appears likely to, the establishment—and the public—will also have to bear the consequences of his stated foreign policy, including his sustained desire for “peace talks” with the murderous Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and a rift with the U.S. still displeased over his allegations of a “regime change conspiracy.” Pakistan’s Gulf allies, propping up our economy with loans and deposits, are also not too keen on Khan’s return.
Meanwhile, Pakistan’s economy requires a painful period of recovery for which Khan appears neither ready, nor suited, as he continues to wax poetic about real estate development while remaining mum about necessary reforms in tax and revenue. The PTI is ready to retake the reins of Pakistan—but is the country ready for it?