File photo of a meeting between PDM chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman; PMLN President Shahbaz Sharif; and PPP Co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari
With the constitutional term of the National Assembly set to expire on Aug. 12, the parties comprising the ruling coalition are all set to break apart to contest general elections independently, as they had maintained since the formation of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) that saw the ouster of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)-led government. Major coalition partners Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) are facing further internal issues, with the former yet to nullify an impression of a rift between the Sharif brothers and the latter striving to shore up its standing in Punjab, once its political base.
For the PMLN, there is an apparent deviation between the interests of Nawaz and Shehbaz, which has also played out in the party’s second-tier leadership, as recently evidenced by one section backing Finance Minister Ishaq Dar as a candidate for the interim prime minister, while the other rubbishes it. Key to the siblings’ conflict is their governance methodology, which relies on handpicked bureaucrats. This, unfortunately, is the inevitable outcome of the military establishment’s outsized role in Pakistani politics, with lawmakers favoring “loyalty” over democratic principles such as meritocracy to maintain their hold on leadership.
The PPP, meanwhile, is focused on a “revival” in Punjab—and further north in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa—to expand beyond its Sindh stronghold, with party co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari aware this is essential for his son, Bilawal, for a shot at the Prime Minister’s Office. Amidst all this, the “Imran Khan factor” persists, with the PTI’s popularity dented but not eradicated following the May 9 riots and the subsequent defections of several leaders from the party. As the country formally enters the election campaign after the coming two weeks, all three will be vying for public support to emerge victorious after the next polls. The party that manages to successfully convince its supporters to come out and vote will determine who leads the next government, which is all but guaranteed to be another coalition setup where no single party can claim a definitive majority.