File photo of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Fayez Nureldine—AFP
Last week, an Israeli minister visited Saudi Arabia, the latest in a series of steps between the two nations to establish diplomatic relations. This is part of a growing trend in the Gulf, with Pakistan—strongly affiliated with Saudi Arabia—often questioned if it, too, is now under pressure to recognize Israel. But while Islamabad has repeatedly rejected any move to normalize ties with Israel, there is no doubt that it will wish to avoid any friction with Riyadh if the latter proceeds as per the wishes of the U.S. and Israel.
For now, any potential Saudi-Israeli relationship is hostage to demands from Riyadh for legally binding security commitments from the U.S.; support for a Saudi nuclear program; and unfettered access to sophisticated technology. The Gulf kingdom has also linked diplomatic relations to progress in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict—a tough ask of the ultra-conservative incumbent coalition government in power in Israel.
Pakistan, despite enjoying “fraternal” ties with Saudi Arabia that include a very close “civil-military” relationship, is likely to break from Riyadh if the Gulf state proceeds to recognize Israel. Part of this is linked to Pakistan’s personal interests in not wanting to damage its case for Kashmir if it recognizes Israel without the right to self-determination of Palestinians; and another part results from decades of describing Israel as a villainous state. The same situation would likely play out in other Muslim majority states, with the Organization of Islamic Cooperation likely to play a key role and laying bare the sectarian splits.
The fact remains that, following the Abraham Accords of 2020, Israel has made significant breakthroughs in rekindling ties with several Arab states, including Bahrain and the U.A.E. Sudan and Morocco have also recognized Israel. Muslim states would do well to treat any such step rationally rather than with religious passion.