File photo of PTI Chairman Imran Khan
The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), acting on the desires of party chief Imran Khan, has dissolved two provincial assemblies under its control—Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa—with an aim to pressure Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government into early general elections. These polls, Khan believes, will return his to party to power on the basis of its “performance” with a two-thirds majority. The ruling coalition however does not want early polls, fearing an electoral drubbing due to the twin factors of Khan’s popularity and a polity frustrated by economic hardships.
There are no certainties in politics, but Khan is currently on track to secure a majority in the next elections and form the government at the center—even if his dream of a two-thirds majority appears unlikely. What remains to be seen is whether the security establishment, without whose support—tacit or otherwise—no government in Pakistan has managed to survive very long in power is willing to cater to a Khan it has grown increasingly disenchanted with.
For now, the political tussle has shifted to the appointment of interim chief ministers in Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. The process is well underway in Punjab, and there is little indication it will be resolved amicably through consultation between the opposition and treasury. This will place the onus on the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), whose appointment Punjab Chief Minister Parvez Elahi has already vowed to challenge in court.
Khan’s relationship with the ECP—who he accuses of being hand-in-glove with his rivals—echoes his fractured ties with the establishment. But the PTI chief’s mass popularity remains uncontested, with supporters believing he will take Pakistan to new political and economic heights—despite his party’s performance during the four years it was in power. An establishment committed to tackling the resurgence of terrorism is, meanwhile, disinclined to cater to his calls for “rehabilitation” of the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, which is continuing to murder security forces across the country.
The PTI’s popularity wave hit its peak last year when Khan accused the U.S. of a “regime change conspiracy.” But this narrative, while popular with the voters, does not sit well with “friendly nations” who Pakistan is reliant on for financial solvency. Recognizing this, Khan pulled his signature ‘U-turn,’ signaling a readiness to mend ties with the same U.S. he had repeatedly accused of conspiring against him. “As far as I’m concerned, it’s over, it’s behind me,” he told an interviewer. “The Pakistan I want to lead must have good relationships with everyone, especially the United States.” Will Khan reverse course again, alienating Pakistan’s friends abroad, if his popularity starts to decline? Only time will tell.