Screengrab of a video showing the flood situation in Taunsa Shareef, Punjab
Pakistan is a politically disturbed state, and the world knows it, but what alarms everyone is the historically unprecedented flooding currently engulfing a third of the country. Global-warming has made molten the world’s second largest number of glaciers in Pakistan’s north and the waters rushing downstream have carved out a path of destruction. Large parts of Balochistan and Sindh have literally drowned while south Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa have been partially subjected to the devastation. Nearly 1.7 million houses have been either totally or partially destroyed nationwide, with Sindh alone accounting for 1.4 million of the losses. In Balochistan, over 63,000 houses have been lost to the deluge, while Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa has suffered the complete destruction of over 35,000 houses. More than 59,078 houses have been damaged or destroyed in Punjab.
Even before this year’s floods, Pakistan was politically and economically troubled. Almost dead economically, with the Pakistani rupee struggling to stabilize against the U.S. dollar for months, its troubles have been compounded by a perpetual face-off between the coalition government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Imran Khan’s popular Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. News of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) finally reviving a suspended $6.5 billion bailout program and releasing a $1.16 billion tranche is welcome, saving Pakistan from the default that ousted prime minister Khan had almost made certain with his aggressive anti-American posturing and an unfunded and economically punishing fuel subsidy. However, the IMF money will not be enough to overcome the losses incurred due to the floods, estimated at above $10 billion by authorities. The GDP growth rate is also expected to come down from 5 percent to 2 percent.
Pakistan’s historically largest disaster has been accompanied by the lowest-ever level of politics with the PTI urging the public to rise against the government. Even the floods have become an arena of conflict. Khan refuses to aid the government’s fundraising efforts, opting to collect his own money, including from the expat Pakistani community determined to get him enthroned again as the prime minister. The impact of the floods on the ongoing political tussle is also starting to show, as affected people in Sindh complain of neglect from the provincial government alongside similar pleas from residents of flooded areas of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and south Punjab—ruled by the PPP, PTI, BAP, and a PMLQ-PTI alliance, respectively. P.M. Sharif has committed, under the Flood Relief Cash Assistance program, to aid all affected persons in every province, with Rs. 19 billion already dispensed to more than 789,000 families.
It may take months for flood waters to recede and for rehabilitation work to reach the hardest-hit areas, and the continued political crisis will remain a major distraction from relief efforts. With the federal and provincial governments under the control of different political parties, there is also the risk of aid being distributed in preferential or politicized ways.
The prevailing political instability will finally damage Pakistan more than the flood, even as the country learns nothing from the disaster because its political turmoil does not prepare it—opposed to neighboring India and Bangladesh—for the deep-seated economic and social changes dictated by climate change. The irony is that even as Pakistani politicians are busy with their infighting, the country—despite contributing less than 1 percent of global greenhouse emissions annually—remains one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change globally.