File photo of the destruction in Gaza
Regional politics in the Gulf look to be shifting amidst Israel’s ongoing siege of the Gaza Strip and the apparently planned ouster of its population southward to Egypt. Israel’s strongest ally, the U.S., appears amenable to this, prompting China to turn to Iran to evolve a response to the new situation. Key to this would be Saudi Arabia, whose oil remains a major import for China, and whose stance on the evolving situation remains unclear, especially as it was on the verge of normalizing ties with Israel prior to the events of Oct. 7. There are now growing fears that recent Chinese inroads in Middle East diplomacy—notably the Iran-Saudi deal on Yemen—could be derailed, giving Beijing and Tehran a vested interest in ensuring viability. By contrast, a successful Israel-Saudi peace deal would cement Riyadh’s security partnership with the U.S., giving Washington more control over supplies coming out of the Gulf.
Despite U.S. sanctions, China continues to import a hefty amount of Iranian oil, going from roughly 600,000 barrels/day by the end of 2021 to a 10-year high of 1.5 million barrels in 2023. Not helping matters is China’s growing ties with Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, also despite sanctions, with Moscow surpassing Riyadh in becoming China’s biggest supplier of oil. Combined, Iran and Russia now represent a captive source for about a third of the roughly 10 billion barrels/day China needs. These disruptions have put a damper on America’s “pivot to Asia,” an added bonus for China.
While U.S. President Joe Biden had earlier assured Ukraine of American support indefinitely, Washington’s support has waned as its focus shifts to Israel, raising fears Ukraine could be abandoned to the whims of Russia in the months to come. This would only serve to push several Gulf states toward the China-Russia combine, as most recently evidenced from a visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. This would further complicate the prospect of regional peace, especially as “nonaligned” India voices support for Israel—and by extension the U.S.
While the direction of the shift in regional politics is now clearer, a key question remains over the inevitable fallout, the consequences of which no one can predict.